Kevin M. Clermont (Cornell Law School) has published "Toward a General Theory of Evidence and Proof: Probability v. Conviction" on SSRN. Here is the abstract:
Legal factfinding rightly rejects probabilism. It favors instead a theory of evidence and proof based on inner convictions or beliefs.Traditional probability fundamentally assumes bivalence and additivity: there is only truth and falsity, whose odds add to one. The result is many problems and paradoxes, all attributable to the assumptions’ exclusive focus on random uncertainty.By contrast, multivalent belief theory abjures those two assumptions, thereby allowing consideration of epistemic uncertainty. This theory comprises a more general but perfectly valid logic that accounts for all relevant kinds of uncertainty and so explains the law’s wise practices.
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