"Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles"

Recently published on SSRN:

 

"Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles"

 

NACI H. MOCAN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge - Department of Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
OZKAN EREN, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge - Department of Economics

Employing the universe of juvenile court decisions in a U.S. state between 1996 and 2012, we analyze the effects of emotional shocks associated with unexpected outcomes of football games played by a prominent college team in the state. We investigate the behavior of judges, the conduct of whom should, by law, be free of personal biases and emotions. We find that unexpected losses increase disposition (sentence) lengths assigned by judges during the week following the game. Unexpected wins, or losses that were expected to be close contests ex-ante, have no impact. The effects of these emotional shocks are asymmetrically borne by black defendants. We present evidence that the results are not influenced by defendant or attorney behavior or by defendants’ economic background. Importantly, the results are driven by judges who have received their bachelor’s degrees from the university with which the football team is affiliated. Different falsification tests and a number of auxiliary analyses demonstrate the robustness of the findings. These results provide evidence for the impact of emotions in one domain on a behavior in a completely unrelated domain among a uniformly highly-educated group of individuals (judges), with decisions involving high stakes (sentence lengths). They also point to the existence of a subtle and previously-unnoticed capricious application of sentencing.

 

Comments

[Ed Kramer]

Interesting analysis. Judges are people too - they have good and bad days. I would hate to see decisions by computer however.

[Ed Kramer]

Interesting analysis.

[Arthur Boudreaux]

This is an association (that may not continue with time) which may be true and unrelated. It is like the fact that people who go to hospitals have a higher chance of death than those who don't. No relation to reality.